British Bookmakers Install Donald Trump as Even-Money to Win the Republican Nomination
British bookmakers have adjusted their betting odds on whether Donald Trump will win the Republican Party’s nomination for president. In the newly published odds at Ladbrokes, Donald Trump is now even-money to win the nomination. A person can bet $10 to receive $10, plus their initial stake.
Ladrokes also has increased Donald Trump’s odds of being the next U.S. president have increased to 3-to-1. Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the favorite to win the presidency, with 0.88-to-1 odds of winning. To win $8.80, someone would have bet $1 that Hillary Clinton will win the November 2016 election.
Trump Is 3-to-1 to Win the Presidency
The U.K. bookmaker Coral has adjusted its odds on Donald Trump, too. Late last year, Coral had Donald Trump as a 4-to-1 favorite to secure the GOP’s nomination. As the Iowa Caucuses approach on Tuesday, Trump’s campaign has shown now signs of slowing down. The endorsement of Sarah Palin also gave his campaign a boost, because Palin is popular with the evangelical Christians that Trump’s main rival in Iowa, Ted Cruz, considers his base. Donald Trump’s bump in the odds have come at the expense of the second- and third-leading candidates in the Iowa polls, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio.
Paddy Power’s odds on the underdogs are an example of the general thinking on Republican and Democratic candidates. Marco Rubio is seen as the third-most likely presidential winner, with 5.5-to-1. Democratic candidate and Independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, is next with 7-to-1 odds.
Sanders’ is buoyed by the scandals which follow Hillary Clinton over the Benghazi attacks and her private email server, which was used for Clinton’s work at the State Department. Former Speaker of the House Tom Delay claimed earlier this week that Hillary Clinton would be indicted in the email scandal, but nothing materialized. Still, such rumors are a sign that Clinton has a legal Sword of Damocles over her head. At present, Sanders and Clinton are even in the Democratic polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Ted Cruz Only Has 20-to-1 Odds
While Sen. Ted Cruz is running neck-and-neck with Donald Trump in Iowa, he is seen by Paddy Power as a 20-to-1 long shot to win the presidency in November. Cruz’s low odds are a reflection of the common perception that the Texas senator is well out of the mainstream of American political thought. While Ted Cruz runs strong in the Republican nominating process, he has little appeal with Independents or Moderate Democrats. The last time a hardline conservative was nominated for president (1964), the Barry Goldwater went down to historic defeat by President Lyndon Johnson. Cruz has the same odds to secure the presidency as Jeb Bush (20:1).
Meanwhile, potential independent candidate, Michael Bloomberg, is given 25-to-1 odds of securing the presidency. Bloomberg is the former New York City mayor (2002-13) and billionaire. His wealth sits at an estimated $41 billion from his work at Bloomberg L.P., originally known as Innovative Market System. Bloomberg’s billions make him the 7th-richest American and the 13th-wealthiest person on Earth. Yet Michael Bloomberg has received almost no media coverage and would face an uphill struggle to carve a niche in this year’s electoral process, even with his vast wealth.
Who Has the Strongest Ground Game?
As it has been from the beginning, Donald Trump dominates the news in the United States. The question everyone is asking: will that attention translate to electoral success on Monday? Iowa is known as the “Graveyard of Politicians”, because a disappointing vote in the Iowa Caucuses have doomed countless presidential candidates. Iowa is always the first vote in the nominating process.
Because the state uses the caucus system — which eschews polling booths and instead requires staunch supporters to convince supporters of other candidates to join them — the Iowa Caucuses are always unpredictable, and require dedicated organizational support. Every four years, CNN, MSNBC, and FoxNews analysts discuss the “ground game”, an American football term which evokes down-in-the-dirt hard work “in the trenches”.
Thus, six months of news coverage might not mean a thing, if Donald Trump’s supporters cannot convince other Iowa Republicans to join their caucus. In 1,682 precincts on Tuesday night, Iowans will go into town halls, meeting centers, high school gyms, or auditoriums to caucus. In each precinct, they remain until one candidate has a majority. The system has produced major upsets, with former Sen. Rick Santorum winning in 2012 and former Gov. Mike Huckabee winning in 2008.
Good Value for Trump Detractors
Ian Noctor, Communications Director for online betting exchange Matchbook, said that the anti-Trump gamblers are receiving tremendous value.
Mr. Noctor said, “If you’re still as certain as you were six months ago that Trump has no chance of making it to the White House, then there’s incredible value in (betting against him). When Trump announced his intention to run, some of our bettors were so convinced he was a no hoper they were betting ($143) to win a single pound back. Now bettors are laying around ($6.46) to win the same amount. This boost in the market, likely driven by the media hype around Trump’s chances of winning Iowa, has provided a great opportunity for bettors to cash in.”
A huge upset could happen. If Donald Trump has lauded his high-tone poll numbers for 6 months, only to lose the first vote, his campaign could be in trouble from the start. That is why Donald Trump has gone on the offensive in recent weeks, attacking Ted Cruz’s citizenship status, after Cruz pulled even in the Iowa polls.
It is also why former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has launched political attack ads at Sen. Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are the two most likely candidates to eventual garner the majority of moderate Republican or Establishment conservative support. If Trump and Cruz finished first and second, then whoever finishes third on Monday is the one most likely to gain the support of the mainstream faction of the Republican Party. That candidate is likely to emerge as the main challenger to whichever insurgent candidate proves stronger: Trump or Cruz.
Snapshot of the GOP Contest
This site does not give betting advice. A political vote is essentially a popularity contest and taste is hard to account for. A person might as well wager on the outcome of a dog show. That being said, it is entertaining to speculate on the likely results.
Donald Trump’s decision to remove himself from the 7th Republican Debate was a brilliant tactical move. He removed himself from the fray, leaving Ted Cruz to bear the brunt of political attacks from other debaters on the www. Cruz was savaged by Trump’s other opponents, while he didn’t have to lift a finger. Meanwhile, Donald Trump hosted a fundraising event on CNN, getting attention and standing on the stage next to Iowa’s winners in the last two election cycles — Santorum and Huckabee, who were excluded from the debate. Santorum and Huckabee also happen to be Trump rivals, but they instead looked like they were endorsing Donald Trump.
The problem is, tactical brilliance is not always strategic brilliance. The move could backfire. While tactics are the small picture, strategy is the big picture. The decision to high-hat the Republican debate could offend many Iowans, whose midwestern values tend to be offended by brash, loudmouthed New Yorkers. If Donald Trump offended the Iowa voters, he would not be the first easterner to do so. There is a good chance Tuesday night has huge surprises in store for those who follow American politics.
