The Psychology of Bluffing: How to Read Opponents in Online Poker
Many players believe that one of the big additional edges that is possible in live poker is the ability to
The Psychology of Bluffing: How to Read Opponents in Online Poker
Many players believe that one of the big additional edges that is possible in live poker is the ability to tell when opponents are bluffing. Some go so far as to say there is no way of telling whether opponents are bluffing online. While it is undoubtedly true that there are no physical tells available when you’re playing online, that’s not to say there are no tells.
In this article, I’ll outline the methods you can use to come to a determination as to how likely it is that an opponent is bluffing online. These fall broadly into the following characteristics:
- Opponent tendencies
- Board Texture
- Bet Sizing Tells
- Timing Tells
- Screen Names
- National Tendencies
Opponent Tendencies
Playing good unexploitable poker involves being perfectly balanced, so that in every spot we are neither over bluffing nor under bluffing. In practice, almost nobody is perfectly balanced. It’s not even desirable to be perfectly balanced unless we are playing against opponents who are capable of exploiting our imbalances. Against opponents who themselves are imbalanced we should be imbalanced too, in order to exploit their imbalance. For example, if someone folds too much we should bluff more and against calling stations we should bluff less.
Using HUDs and Notes to Analyze Tendencies
Aside from that, some players just love to bluff, and end up doing so more often than is optimal. Conversely, some players are too tentative when it comes to bluffing, and as a result under bluff. This is true both live and online, but online it’s actually easier to spot players who either over bluff or under bluff. On sites which allow heads up display software (HUDs), you can quickly build up a statistical profile of players which allows you to drill down on their tendencies.
You can see who is too loose pre-flop, who three-bets too frequently, who continuation-bets too frequently, who check-raises too frequently, and who fires the second or third barrels too often. Even on sites that don’t allow HUDs, you can review hand histories to quickly identify over-bluffers and under-bluffers.
You can use the note-taking facility available on most sites to write notes like “continuation bets too much,” “check-raises as a bluff on low boards too often,” or “bluffs rivers too often.” For players who over-bluff or under-bluff in every spot, you can assign different color codes: for example, I red-tag over-bluffers to indicate they have great heart, and a yellow-tag under-bluffers.
Board Texture
While it’s true that over bluffers and under bluffers exist both online and live, they tend to be more common live. For obvious reasons, online imbalances tend to be quickly exploited and imbalanced players online lose their money quicker than live. Therefore, egregious over bluffers are under bluffers in every spot are less common online.
What is more common is players who under bluff in some spots and over bluff in others. HUDs can help you identify players like this in some cases. For example, continuation bet statistics over multiple streets can be used to identify bluffing imbalance. If a player’s continuation bet statistic for all three streets, flop turn and river, is 100%, then you can deduce they are over bluffing on every street.
Analyzing Board Texture for Bluffing Patterns
You will also find players who continuation bet the flop almost 100% of the time but their turn bet frequency drops to 40%. This type of player is over bluffing on the flop but then playing honestly on the turn. Other players will continuation bet the flop 100%, follow through on the turn 100% but then give up on the river. Again, even if the site you are playing on doesn’t allow HUDs, you can deduce this information by reviewing hand histories or even just paying attention in game.
Additionally, some players over bluff in some spots or on uncertain board textures, and under bluff in others. Typically, this happens in spots where a player has either too many natural bluffs or not enough in their range. For example, when there are lots of draws that all miss the river some players will bluff all of them, which inevitably means they are over bluffing.
By contrast, on dry boards where there are no draws and therefore few if any natural bluffs, the same players will often struggle to find sufficient bluffs, and end up under bluffing as a result. Similarly, on flops where there are lots of natural double back door bluffs, many players will use all of these and end up over bluffing, but when a board is paired, disconnected and rainbow, they will struggle to find any bluffs.
Bet Sizing Tells
Another key area to pay attention to is bet sizing. Some players like to be big when they are bluffing, on the basis that the bigger they bet the more likely you are to fold. The same players often use the same logic when it comes to their value bets, betting smaller on the basis that you are more likely to call. Other players do the opposite. They bet small with their bluffs, wanting to lose the minimum if the bluff doesn’t work, and they bet big with their value hands hoping to win the maximum if you do call.
Timing Tells
These exist both live and online, but in the absence of physical tells, are particularly important online. There are several clearly identifiable ones you will see time and time again.
Common Online Timing Tells
- Fast Opens Preflop: Usually non marginal hands weighted towards big Ax and pairs. Most players know they are going to open strong hands and pairs, but have to think whether to open weaker hands.
- Fast Raises Postflop: Usually a strong made hand: the player knows without thinking is a raise. Draws usually need some time to think about raising or calling, and weaker made hands to think about bluff raising or folding.
- Fast Calls Postflop: Usually a draw. Made hands have to at least consider raising or folding, but many players just call with all draws so as soon as they see they have a draw they click Call.
- Instacheck Postflop: Generally weak, indicating the player has given up on the hand.
Slow Check Postflop
As a general rule, fast actions are much more significant and far more likely to be a tell than slow bets (which may simply be the result of a slow connection, or the player playing too many tables). That said, a lot of weaker players have a tendency to check slowly with a weak marginal hand that they don’t want to give up on but don’t want to face a big bet with.
This is essentially an act strong when weak tell similar to that you often see live: a player checks slowly hoping to make it appear they were considering betting, to dissuade their opponent from doing so. Slow calls fall into the same category (hoping to discourage further betting).
Slow Check Quick Check Raise Postflop
This is an important exception to the previous tell. In this case the quick check raise is more significant than the slow check. and likely indicates a monster.
Slow Bets or Raises Postflop
These are essentially the opposite of the slow check above: a monster where the player is trying to act weak by acting slowly as if unsure what to do. A long tank into the timebank followed by an all-in is almost never a bluff. You also see this tell live when there are time extensions: players will use one hoping to make it look like they have a difficult decision, then act quickly once they’ve used it (whereas a player with a genuinely tricky decision would likely use the full time allowed by the extension).
Fast Turn Bets in Orphan Pots
An orphan pot is a multiway pot in which nobody shows much interest on the flop or turn. These are obviously good pots to attack, but be careful not to bet the turn too quickly when the flop checks through. A quick turn bet after the flop checks through is much more likely to be a bluff from a player hoping to pick up an orphan pot than a value bet (it usually takes at least a few seconds to consider whether betting or checking is best, and what size to use).
Fast River Bet
This is almost always a polarized range. When a player has a marginal hand and in particular when a board changing river card changes the strength of a lot of hands, players tend to have to take at least a few seconds to decide whether to check or bet, and what size to use. By contrast, a player with the stone cold nuts or a stone cold bluff doesn’t need to think as long. On river cards that significantly change the board such as cards that bring in straights, flushes or pair the board, fast river bets are even more likely to be bluffs, as monsters usually have to spend a little time at least considering what size to use.
Screen Names
You might think this is a joke, but the screen names people choose for themselves can provide some indication as to whether they over bluff or under bluff. Firstly, players who use Braggadocio names like Imapro or Ibeatyoueverytime tend in general to be over bluffers.
Similarly, players who either use screen names that reference famous poker players like Phil Helmuth or use pictures of those players as their avatars are often recreational who think that bluffing is the best part of the game, and therefore they do so at every opportunity. Finally, players whose screen name are all caps also tend to be over bluffers. To me, this feels similar to players who dress very extravagantly in live poker to draw attention to themselves who also tend to over bluff.
National Tendencies
National stereotyping is always a risky proposition, and of all the tells covered in this article, this is undoubtedly the weakest. Nevertheless, there is a grain of truth in many national stereotypes. Brazilians love to bluff, as do the French. It’s very important to know however that these broad stereotypes really only apply to recreational players Regs and pros from all countries will tend to be balanced.
Nevertheless this is a useful data point precisely because it is often the only data point. When you are playing against regs, you will have many hands over which to judge their own individual tendencies But when a new recreational player shows up, often the only thing you will have to base your initial read on is their nationality. So if in doubt when you get to the river with a bluff catcher and you have no information on the player, hover over their nationality and if it says Brazil, call!
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